* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/20/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 52 55 54 48 34 32 28 24 22 20 19 17 15 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 52 55 54 48 34 32 28 24 22 20 19 17 15 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 47 48 48 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 19 16 17 12 37 49 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -1 8 5 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 201 196 184 207 263 276 282 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 20.7 20.3 18.8 18.2 17.1 16.4 16.7 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 87 85 81 79 75 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 85 81 80 76 74 71 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.7 -59.0 -59.6 -59.1 -58.6 -59.3 -59.9 -60.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 40 42 45 45 48 47 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 26 25 26 25 23 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 89 74 89 99 70 42 -14 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 47 51 45 28 21 10 1 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -31 -21 -16 16 31 21 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1267 1285 1357 1491 1653 1559 1168 910 654 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.5 37.7 38.9 39.9 40.8 42.1 42.5 42.3 42.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.3 43.3 40.3 37.2 34.2 28.1 23.4 20.2 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 26 25 24 20 15 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 25 CX,CY: 22/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. -35. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -2. -6. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 10. 9. 3. -11. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -26. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.5 46.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.38 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.55 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.04 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 10.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 52 55 54 48 34 32 28 24 22 20 19 17 15 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 49 52 51 45 31 29 25 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 43 46 45 39 25 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 38 37 31 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT