* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 53 58 64 67 69 65 55 48 41 35 28 23 21 21 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 53 58 64 67 69 65 55 48 41 35 28 23 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 47 49 53 56 57 52 43 35 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 4 6 8 11 12 22 21 21 26 27 24 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 0 2 1 4 10 10 9 3 4 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 126 83 120 103 161 140 163 185 206 183 193 199 206 203 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 148 142 141 141 136 131 129 126 126 128 130 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 60 64 63 63 65 64 60 51 41 33 34 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 20 21 21 22 23 23 19 17 14 12 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -8 2 14 18 16 20 29 25 48 72 86 68 55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 9 4 15 29 24 39 73 52 35 64 49 38 30 17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -5 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 3 4 1 2 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 898 974 1055 1130 1176 1211 1203 1140 1075 974 898 861 821 782 745 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.5 14.2 15.3 16.2 17.1 17.7 18.0 18.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.3 112.3 113.3 114.2 115.8 116.8 117.3 117.4 117.0 116.6 116.4 116.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 12 13 13 8 10 13 7 4 3 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. -0. -4. -7. -8. -11. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 19. 22. 24. 20. 10. 3. -4. -10. -17. -22. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.1 110.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.58 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 25.3% 20.1% 15.7% 11.8% 21.6% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 35.1% 18.7% 12.9% 2.6% 15.7% 8.3% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 20.9% 13.0% 9.6% 4.8% 12.5% 8.7% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##