* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/24/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 32 31 36 43 49 53 55 55 57 57 56 57 53 51 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 32 31 36 43 49 53 55 55 57 57 56 57 53 51 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 34 32 31 30 31 34 37 39 40 40 39 38 36 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 6 4 2 1 4 0 3 4 11 9 12 17 15 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 1 0 5 2 0 2 1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 7 0 SHEAR DIR 281 280 270 267 223 94 137 147 217 205 211 222 199 206 192 200 188 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.6 28.2 27.6 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 157 155 150 147 150 146 139 145 144 141 134 127 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -54.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 56 56 55 55 55 58 62 61 65 67 70 70 66 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 15 16 15 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -15 -9 0 7 2 11 8 6 7 1 0 5 7 19 8 11 200 MB DIV 9 9 19 37 45 23 44 -3 -16 -21 2 30 59 50 95 38 12 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 7 1 LAND (KM) 386 442 503 564 625 775 946 1124 1215 1307 1353 1368 1314 1221 1177 1189 1203 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.3 13.9 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.7 14.4 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.1 105.9 106.7 107.6 109.5 111.4 113.3 115.1 117.0 118.4 119.4 119.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 24 32 31 27 23 20 13 13 11 5 12 14 13 7 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 3. 2. 4. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -9. -3. 3. 9. 13. 15. 15. 17. 17. 16. 17. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 104.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.32 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.04 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 12.1% 11.3% 9.1% 0.0% 14.1% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.7% 4.0% 3.1% 0.0% 5.0% 4.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##