* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 40 41 46 51 55 60 62 61 62 63 58 55 48 42 V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 40 41 46 51 55 60 62 61 62 63 58 55 48 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 39 37 35 34 37 41 46 52 55 56 56 52 44 36 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 7 3 2 6 7 7 8 7 12 14 24 23 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 3 -1 2 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 0 2 0 5 4 1 SHEAR DIR 253 276 278 256 261 135 149 157 149 197 192 187 198 206 209 212 217 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 160 158 154 150 150 152 151 146 143 138 133 130 124 115 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 58 57 56 54 54 53 56 55 61 64 65 65 60 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 17 16 18 20 18 18 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -26 -14 -7 1 8 18 26 19 28 15 18 26 22 14 14 34 200 MB DIV 39 15 16 13 29 41 41 58 19 12 26 46 72 65 56 44 32 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 1 1 0 1 2 5 8 9 5 LAND (KM) 318 358 410 464 521 642 786 932 1073 1131 1154 1138 1090 985 906 864 815 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.1 13.9 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.2 104.9 105.7 106.5 108.1 109.9 111.6 113.4 115.2 116.6 117.5 117.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 5 6 5 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 30 32 28 22 21 15 14 16 17 16 9 6 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 7. 6. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -4. 1. 6. 10. 15. 17. 16. 17. 18. 13. 10. 3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 103.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.30 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.13 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 19.6% 15.9% 12.3% 8.6% 19.0% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.1% 5.5% 4.2% 2.9% 6.5% 5.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##