* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 56 60 63 65 63 60 53 47 44 39 36 32 28 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 56 60 63 65 63 60 53 47 44 39 36 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 55 58 59 58 55 48 41 35 30 26 22 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 10 4 5 4 9 14 12 19 23 25 27 26 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 0 5 8 5 5 3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 63 60 61 64 57 2 212 264 249 255 272 297 302 315 296 289 276 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.0 25.9 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 139 133 125 126 126 126 127 126 127 126 122 121 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 59 58 57 61 60 58 56 52 44 37 32 29 28 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 13 14 15 16 16 14 12 12 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 29 26 22 1 -1 -4 15 24 23 22 42 45 55 43 37 200 MB DIV 67 48 30 26 30 36 20 4 9 23 0 -7 -21 -30 -27 10 11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 2 4 5 3 4 6 9 10 LAND (KM) 1547 1598 1648 1687 1730 1797 1847 1856 1868 1882 1888 1911 1951 2016 2116 2244 2142 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.5 122.6 123.5 124.4 125.9 126.9 127.4 127.9 128.2 128.5 128.9 129.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 10 7 3 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 20. 23. 25. 23. 20. 13. 7. 4. -1. -4. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.1 120.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.55 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.82 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 24.1% 20.5% 16.9% 11.9% 22.7% 19.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 18.4% 10.2% 4.8% 4.2% 5.2% 7.3% 2.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 14.7% 10.3% 7.2% 5.4% 9.3% 9.1% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##