* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142013 10/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 47 52 56 57 53 47 41 38 35 32 29 27 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 47 52 56 57 53 47 41 38 35 32 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 45 46 44 39 33 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 14 11 4 1 7 9 16 21 24 25 33 37 34 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 0 4 3 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 57 70 67 71 86 339 323 266 225 237 245 268 286 301 312 303 300 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.3 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 141 130 127 125 126 125 128 130 132 130 124 124 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 59 60 59 62 64 61 59 57 52 47 41 37 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 12 13 13 14 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 33 29 26 6 -3 -3 1 12 15 7 9 15 21 15 0 200 MB DIV 69 77 49 33 39 41 46 38 19 21 5 2 -18 -33 -45 -23 -32 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 6 4 3 6 6 7 LAND (KM) 1460 1524 1578 1626 1680 1738 1761 1778 1772 1761 1782 1819 1865 1927 2014 2133 2247 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.3 121.4 122.4 123.4 124.9 125.8 126.4 126.8 127.0 127.4 127.9 128.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 18 13 8 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 22. 26. 27. 23. 17. 11. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 119.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142013 FOURTEEN 10/07/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.60 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.30 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 20.5% 17.5% 14.2% 0.0% 20.1% 16.8% 15.3% Logistic: 2.0% 7.5% 3.2% 1.5% 1.1% 2.7% 6.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 9.6% 6.9% 5.2% 0.4% 7.6% 7.7% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 FOURTEEN 10/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##