* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/15/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 65 65 62 56 56 56 56 55 53 52 49 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 65 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 61 50 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 17 12 9 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 2 0 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 277 277 274 279 306 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 142 136 134 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 129 124 119 118 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 8 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 78 80 79 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 17 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 72 82 89 97 94 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 94 106 104 75 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 -2 -2 -8 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 159 123 72 15 -41 -125 -216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.6 97.1 97.6 98.2 99.1 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 40 29 21 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.6 96.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.45 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.34 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.85 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.6% 10.5% 8.5% 8.1% 10.2% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.7% 3.1% 2.3% 1.3% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Consensus: 2.7% 7.5% 4.5% 3.6% 3.2% 4.2% 3.6% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/15/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 64 65 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 64 65 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 49 33 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 42 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT