* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 74 73 70 63 58 57 55 51 48 47 45 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 70 73 74 74 73 70 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 75 76 76 71 47 33 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 20 20 23 26 8 8 8 7 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 2 1 4 0 -2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 297 290 288 290 304 244 327 3 32 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.5 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 153 153 153 141 135 133 132 132 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 134 136 135 124 117 115 113 114 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 -50.3 -51.3 -50.6 -51.5 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 9 7 10 8 11 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 80 82 84 85 83 84 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 15 10 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 58 68 79 90 116 114 98 94 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 102 92 88 92 112 102 2 63 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 -1 -4 -1 -1 -3 2 2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 258 239 229 189 143 21 -53 -105 -139 -144 -148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.7 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.3 22.1 21.8 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.0 95.2 95.8 96.4 97.6 98.4 98.9 99.2 99.2 99.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 26 28 30 32 21 17 16 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -4. -2. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -9. -15. -17. -19. -22. -22. -23. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -7. -12. -13. -15. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.7 94.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.34 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.35 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.61 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.84 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.0% 28.5% 18.5% 10.8% 9.4% 11.3% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 27.5% 13.5% 8.1% 5.1% 7.2% 7.1% 10.9% Bayesian: 7.5% 4.8% 1.6% 6.4% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3% 40.4% Consensus: 12.4% 20.3% 11.2% 8.5% 5.4% 6.5% 6.1% 17.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/15/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 4( 12) 4( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 6( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 73 74 74 73 70 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 70 70 69 66 43 30 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 65 62 39 26 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 56 33 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT