* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/12/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 46 48 49 47 44 40 36 31 24 20 19 19 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 46 44 44 42 40 36 31 26 20 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 47 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -4 -2 -1 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 266 262 254 228 201 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.8 25.2 16.6 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 131 137 111 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 112 112 119 99 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -54.4 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 54 56 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 12 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -64 -33 12 52 128 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 19 30 63 73 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 12 5 14 16 2 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 778 749 718 561 438 90 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.6 35.5 37.2 38.9 43.7 48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.6 67.6 67.6 67.0 66.3 63.5 60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 13 18 22 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 32 22 22 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -4. -10. -16. -22. -28. -34. -41. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 18. 19. 17. 14. 10. 6. 1. -6. -10. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.6 67.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.63 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.02 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.51 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.1% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 46 44 44 42 40 36 31 26 20 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 44 42 42 40 38 34 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 40 38 38 36 34 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 30 30 28 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT