* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122013 09/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 47 52 57 60 62 64 66 70 74 77 81 85 90 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 47 52 57 60 62 64 50 42 37 33 31 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 49 52 56 59 62 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 3 2 3 6 1 4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 143 159 218 224 253 283 124 280 223 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 153 153 155 155 149 144 142 139 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 74 73 71 69 67 63 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 40 37 28 43 45 44 60 55 62 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 34 41 9 1 3 -19 27 21 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 2 3 -1 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 152 163 191 247 229 84 0 9 7 5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.3 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.9 107.5 108.1 108.6 109.5 110.0 110.3 110.5 110.8 111.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 27 20 16 17 16 12 9 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 35. 39. 42. 46. 50. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.8 106.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122013 TWELVE 09/05/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.73 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.85 -7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 30.3% 21.0% 17.1% 12.5% 23.8% 19.0% 17.8% Logistic: 27.0% 59.1% 50.9% 32.9% 14.2% 58.0% 33.7% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 20.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 2.5% 1.4% 0.4% Consensus: 14.1% 36.6% 24.7% 16.9% 9.1% 28.1% 18.1% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 TWELVE 09/05/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##