* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 43 47 51 56 57 60 60 61 59 57 51 52 51 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 43 47 51 56 57 60 60 61 59 57 51 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 43 47 50 52 53 53 53 53 53 52 50 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 8 5 12 14 20 17 26 19 24 20 32 37 34 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 -2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 287 312 258 262 263 272 252 266 263 265 240 249 240 273 298 296 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 150 152 155 149 150 159 163 163 159 141 134 127 129 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 141 138 139 139 132 132 140 145 146 141 122 114 107 107 101 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 58 57 60 63 64 67 72 68 66 59 55 46 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 48 52 58 52 37 27 10 5 -11 0 -20 -1 -19 0 -37 -54 -89 200 MB DIV 45 40 64 52 28 50 47 46 37 67 45 73 40 34 -35 0 -32 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 1 2 1 3 3 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 68 16 53 56 81 145 244 354 486 631 846 1111 1297 1250 1114 932 769 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.7 21.8 22.8 23.9 25.0 26.6 28.5 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.7 67.2 67.7 68.1 68.5 69.0 69.2 69.1 68.6 67.7 66.4 64.7 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 11 12 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 34 37 46 58 51 46 49 47 50 39 20 13 16 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 31. 30. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -6. -5. -7. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 16. 21. 22. 25. 25. 26. 24. 22. 16. 17. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 66.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.78 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.2% 10.1% 7.6% 6.5% 10.4% 12.8% 20.7% Logistic: 2.3% 17.8% 7.3% 3.7% 2.1% 12.2% 9.9% 14.2% Bayesian: 2.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.3% 11.6% 5.9% 3.8% 2.9% 7.6% 7.6% 11.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 41 43 47 51 56 57 60 60 61 59 57 51 52 51 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 43 47 52 53 56 56 57 55 53 47 48 47 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 42 47 48 51 51 52 50 48 42 43 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 35 40 41 44 44 45 43 41 35 36 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT