* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 38 35 30 24 20 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 38 35 30 24 20 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 42 38 35 29 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 8 10 9 9 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 2 2 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 209 203 199 203 222 229 247 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 114 110 105 101 98 97 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 60 56 52 47 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 12 11 8 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -9 -5 0 1 4 1 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 2 4 -16 -14 7 11 7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 -1 -2 2 1 3 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 490 466 445 430 417 416 414 415 403 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.7 115.8 115.9 115.9 116.1 116.2 116.3 116.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -26. -30. -33. -33. -33. -34. -35. -35. -35. -34. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.6 115.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##