* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/17/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 30 30 29 27 28 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 33 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 30 30 29 27 28 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 15 19 21 10 13 18 18 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 3 0 1 8 4 2 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 235 229 246 260 259 245 247 258 233 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.6 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 106 110 111 111 114 119 125 128 131 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 101 101 102 105 109 114 116 118 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 51 48 43 42 38 35 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 12 12 12 11 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 24 12 13 28 2 -18 -39 -56 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 30 22 0 -5 23 0 -9 -3 -6 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 6 9 10 11 17 17 17 14 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1917 2009 2102 2198 2291 2197 2134 2086 1918 1770 1654 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.4 22.1 22.9 23.9 25.1 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.3 36.2 37.2 38.1 39.1 41.2 43.5 46.0 48.2 50.2 52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 11 15 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -15. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 35.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.35 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.3% 7.3% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.8% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/17/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 32 31 30 30 29 27 28 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 33 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 30 30 29 27 28 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 33 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 29 28 26 27 26 26 26 26 26 28 29 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 23 21 22 21 21 21 21 21 23 24 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT