* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/16/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 36 36 35 36 38 40 43 46 46 47 47 49 51 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 36 36 35 36 38 40 43 46 46 47 47 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 38 38 37 35 34 34 35 37 39 42 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 2 6 10 15 12 17 17 16 14 16 12 14 12 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 0 5 -1 0 1 3 1 1 5 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 30 143 189 210 219 227 247 254 251 264 281 283 267 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 112 111 110 112 113 116 123 126 125 127 128 130 135 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 107 106 105 103 104 104 107 114 115 114 115 115 116 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 63 60 54 51 46 43 43 40 37 36 39 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 33 32 34 32 38 37 40 28 14 3 -17 -34 -50 -47 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 19 0 10 13 0 1 0 0 12 -4 12 -3 1 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 -10 -3 -4 -2 1 3 6 5 12 10 7 11 5 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1335 1468 1602 1727 1852 2053 2241 2156 2066 2004 1935 1793 1678 1655 1653 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.3 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.1 32.3 33.4 34.5 36.6 38.5 40.6 42.8 45.0 47.1 49.1 50.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 9 8 15 23 11 18 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 12. 12. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 29.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/16/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.6% 8.1% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.1% 3.6% 1.3% 0.7% 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.5% 4.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/16/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 36 36 36 35 36 38 40 43 46 46 47 47 49 51 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 36 38 41 44 44 45 45 47 49 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 31 30 31 33 35 38 41 41 42 42 44 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 25 27 29 32 35 35 36 36 38 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT