* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 44 48 51 54 55 57 60 61 63 62 63 65 66 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 44 48 51 54 55 57 60 61 63 62 63 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 44 46 49 52 53 55 58 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 4 2 7 4 5 1 0 2 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 162 140 134 177 46 108 100 83 222 21 338 45 356 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.0 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 126 125 125 125 125 122 129 131 131 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 56 57 57 56 58 57 57 57 56 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 14 20 12 8 5 -10 -13 -6 4 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 20 25 34 36 51 44 44 17 8 11 -9 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1581 1515 1449 1381 1314 1160 1002 836 712 611 540 506 508 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.2 142.9 143.6 144.3 145.8 147.4 149.1 150.7 152.4 153.8 155.1 156.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 7 4 2 1 1 0 2 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 25. 26. 28. 27. 28. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 141.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.91 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 26.1% 20.4% 16.3% 12.1% 22.5% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 27.7% 15.0% 11.9% 5.1% 9.5% 6.4% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 18.0% 11.8% 9.4% 5.7% 10.7% 8.3% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##