* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 31 34 38 42 47 50 54 54 56 55 55 56 57 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 31 34 38 42 47 50 54 54 56 55 55 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 33 36 39 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 12 12 10 13 9 10 11 13 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -4 -6 -5 -6 -4 -1 -3 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 140 142 142 147 128 111 104 81 59 69 71 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.8 27.1 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 131 134 135 133 135 133 129 131 135 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 63 63 63 61 61 59 57 54 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 3 9 10 28 13 11 -3 -3 -16 -14 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 37 34 31 42 35 42 75 52 59 43 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2006 1940 1876 1815 1756 1623 1487 1327 1177 1042 905 794 715 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.0 12.6 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.8 137.6 138.3 139.1 139.8 141.4 143.0 144.8 146.6 148.4 150.4 152.4 154.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 3 6 10 16 16 8 5 10 13 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 24. 24. 26. 25. 25. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 136.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.61 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.22 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 14.2% 12.0% 9.3% 0.0% 14.2% 12.9% 12.7% Logistic: 0.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.6% 4.3% 3.2% 0.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##