* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 37 38 41 45 49 51 52 54 55 55 55 55 55 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 37 38 41 45 49 51 52 54 55 55 55 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 40 37 35 33 32 30 30 31 33 36 38 41 44 47 50 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 3 4 4 8 8 12 13 12 8 8 12 11 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 5 1 -3 -6 -6 -5 -2 1 5 6 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 180 205 203 170 181 146 131 124 124 107 104 59 82 57 90 80 96 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 131 131 134 134 133 134 131 127 127 130 133 132 129 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 63 65 62 60 59 59 58 57 56 55 54 51 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -9 -11 -5 4 11 20 24 28 32 25 24 7 1 -7 -6 200 MB DIV 53 36 15 22 32 11 25 41 66 54 65 29 31 19 17 3 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 2189 2119 2050 1990 1931 1815 1683 1561 1438 1305 1187 1092 990 896 810 743 707 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.8 135.6 136.3 137.0 137.7 139.1 140.6 142.0 143.4 144.9 146.3 147.5 148.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 3 3 6 13 18 14 7 4 6 9 11 7 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.7 134.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.57 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 19.3% 14.8% 10.9% 8.0% 15.5% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.2% 3.5% 1.3% 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.5% 6.1% 4.1% 2.7% 5.7% 4.9% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##