* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 08/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 34 37 40 39 38 36 34 32 29 27 25 24 25 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 34 37 40 39 38 36 34 32 29 27 25 24 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 30 36 37 29 23 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 -1 2 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 1 355 348 339 234 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.0 27.1 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 135 132 127 129 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 118 116 113 115 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 55 56 55 52 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 7 11 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -57 -40 -34 -2 32 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -16 0 7 47 49 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 3 6 -11 -5 -16 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 234 274 263 276 295 559 662 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.9 31.7 32.5 33.2 35.1 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.8 77.9 77.0 75.5 73.9 69.6 65.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 15 18 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 16 22 8 12 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -6. -12. -17. -23. -27. -32. -37. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.1 78.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 08/03/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 08/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 08/03/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 33 34 37 40 39 38 36 34 32 29 27 25 24 25 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 36 39 38 37 35 33 31 28 26 24 23 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 31 34 33 32 30 28 26 23 21 19 18 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 27 26 25 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT