* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 60 58 55 54 52 52 53 57 55 54 52 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 60 58 55 54 52 52 53 57 55 54 52 52 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 65 61 58 54 51 47 45 42 41 40 38 37 36 34 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 9 7 9 7 6 4 3 4 5 4 2 2 0 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 3 4 -1 8 9 12 12 12 9 10 6 5 4 SHEAR DIR 250 238 269 291 285 289 324 216 252 164 181 202 259 136 167 99 338 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.4 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 126 123 123 126 127 131 126 124 126 121 123 127 128 129 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 63 65 65 64 67 68 72 69 69 66 63 59 53 49 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 14 13 14 17 16 17 17 20 18 18 18 18 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -11 -3 -5 -10 -6 -6 9 13 22 46 54 65 68 76 58 58 200 MB DIV 26 38 75 42 41 67 56 78 35 52 35 42 54 55 11 -2 -13 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -4 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1984 2036 2091 2140 2190 2302 2255 2090 1934 1794 1649 1502 1349 1190 1023 860 709 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.4 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.8 129.6 130.3 131.1 132.5 134.1 135.8 137.4 138.9 140.4 141.9 143.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 0 1 5 2 5 1 1 11 4 1 2 2 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.6 127.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 9.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##