* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 07/31/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 51 56 60 64 67 65 62 58 55 50 46 41 39 35 32 V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 56 60 64 67 65 62 58 55 50 46 41 39 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 57 60 63 61 57 52 47 42 37 32 26 22 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 7 4 10 5 7 9 9 15 16 19 20 17 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 6 4 4 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 320 314 287 295 286 286 295 261 273 281 279 282 275 267 249 256 263 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.5 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.2 25.1 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 150 146 138 130 128 129 128 121 125 127 125 114 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 59 61 60 60 59 61 60 56 56 53 52 47 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 16 17 17 17 17 17 15 14 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -36 -44 -36 -27 -27 -14 -6 5 -1 1 4 0 10 6 8 -1 200 MB DIV 57 48 26 30 46 27 28 20 15 15 25 22 3 6 7 0 1 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 3 3 3 5 2 3 2 4 5 6 LAND (KM) 1335 1372 1418 1473 1515 1607 1726 1836 1920 2005 2129 2272 2095 1907 1699 1472 1246 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.1 119.2 120.3 121.4 123.4 125.3 127.0 128.6 130.1 131.7 133.4 135.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 26 24 15 10 4 1 2 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 25. 22. 18. 15. 10. 6. 1. -1. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.9 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.75 11.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 8.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.71 7.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 -8.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.61 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.9% 51.3% 37.7% 27.0% 14.6% 0.0% 27.4% 11.8% Logistic: 39.4% 60.7% 55.2% 43.7% 27.8% 36.1% 19.1% 19.1% Bayesian: 12.5% 50.4% 20.1% 6.8% 6.1% 12.9% 3.6% 0.0% Consensus: 25.9% 54.1% 37.7% 25.8% 16.2% 16.3% 16.7% 10.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##