* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072013 07/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 51 57 63 66 66 64 64 60 54 51 47 40 34 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 51 57 63 66 66 64 64 60 54 51 47 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 35 39 43 47 52 54 52 50 48 44 40 35 29 24 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 2 4 6 3 4 3 3 11 12 14 18 21 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 0 4 2 2 2 7 8 2 8 8 11 8 9 4 SHEAR DIR 326 321 346 249 282 258 323 335 261 246 259 259 253 246 244 244 241 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.1 25.7 26.2 25.1 24.9 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 150 151 143 133 129 128 129 124 119 125 114 112 114 118 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 60 59 58 58 55 55 53 51 47 45 44 43 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 16 18 18 19 19 20 20 17 17 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -32 -40 -43 -36 -25 -19 -8 -7 11 14 26 23 36 37 34 16 200 MB DIV 64 61 53 35 21 39 32 -7 14 39 11 11 -6 17 7 0 -5 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 4 2 1 1 0 5 2 4 LAND (KM) 1294 1320 1357 1404 1461 1544 1653 1772 1876 1973 2080 2194 2167 1973 1752 1491 1242 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.7 117.8 119.0 120.1 122.2 124.2 126.1 127.9 129.6 131.2 132.8 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 19 25 26 13 6 3 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 10. 12. 10. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 27. 33. 36. 36. 34. 34. 30. 24. 21. 17. 10. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 115.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 SEVEN 07/30/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.85 10.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.82 7.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.66 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 46.4% 29.6% 19.3% 0.0% 24.6% 24.6% 12.4% Logistic: 52.7% 76.8% 75.2% 67.0% 48.5% 50.1% 8.1% 24.1% Bayesian: 6.4% 59.4% 26.4% 9.0% 5.9% 18.5% 4.6% 0.0% Consensus: 25.5% 60.9% 43.8% 31.8% 18.1% 31.1% 12.4% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 SEVEN 07/30/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##