* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/28/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 29 31 32 33 32 30 V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 33 30 26 27 28 27 27 30 31 32 33 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 37 34 33 30 29 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 6 4 10 9 11 17 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 10 10 13 15 12 16 10 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 239 264 289 252 283 305 273 263 267 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.4 24.8 24.9 25.4 26.1 26.9 27.3 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 109 113 114 119 126 134 139 136 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 8 9 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 47 43 40 38 36 36 37 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 21 19 16 13 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 11 5 3 4 -11 -12 -26 -41 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 3 1 -12 -8 -23 -23 0 4 -28 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -7 -11 -2 -8 -14 -7 -12 -11 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1312 1126 941 763 586 257 -3 131 199 449 764 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.3 144.1 145.8 147.5 149.2 152.4 155.3 158.1 161.1 164.3 167.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 15 13 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 11 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -12. -15. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.9 142.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##