* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 35 32 30 28 27 26 27 28 29 30 32 31 30 V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 35 32 30 28 27 26 27 28 29 30 32 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 36 34 31 29 28 27 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 10 11 8 11 10 12 15 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 7 5 6 9 7 12 9 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 238 224 241 244 231 272 269 256 274 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.3 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.5 26.1 27.1 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 108 109 111 115 120 126 137 136 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 52 50 46 45 42 40 41 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 23 21 20 18 16 13 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 2 1 -4 -13 -26 -31 -35 -43 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 14 6 0 -6 -13 -33 -7 5 -13 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 0 -2 -10 0 -9 -7 -7 -10 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1537 1355 1173 999 826 514 215 17 108 240 568 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.2 141.9 143.6 145.3 146.9 149.9 152.9 155.9 159.0 162.4 165.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 14 14 15 15 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. -17. -16. -15. -13. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.5 140.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##