* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 53 53 51 55 58 64 67 66 67 65 65 67 71 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 53 53 51 55 58 64 67 66 67 65 65 67 71 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 54 54 54 55 59 64 67 69 70 68 66 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 3 6 9 8 9 5 8 7 12 14 20 18 23 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 7 5 5 5 0 3 3 6 3 5 3 0 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 269 176 192 231 226 231 254 249 206 209 193 215 227 239 242 233 221 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 112 113 116 123 124 126 134 136 132 131 128 130 133 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 109 111 113 121 122 123 130 131 124 122 119 120 121 120 121 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 60 59 53 50 45 43 43 44 44 47 49 51 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 16 16 17 15 16 15 17 17 16 17 16 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 25 22 23 22 13 14 0 4 -6 -10 3 -2 -12 -27 -39 200 MB DIV 10 43 49 30 4 1 14 12 22 46 35 19 20 1 -12 15 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 5 10 16 12 2 -4 -3 -1 -8 -7 -3 -2 6 1 LAND (KM) 1739 1916 2060 1954 1860 1676 1549 1337 1110 774 498 309 267 238 259 356 357 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.7 35.4 37.0 38.7 40.4 44.1 47.9 51.7 55.2 58.5 61.4 63.9 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 17 16 15 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 16 5 25 15 21 17 14 22 28 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -6. -6. -8. -6. -7. -10. -8. -11. -11. -12. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 5. 8. 14. 17. 16. 17. 15. 15. 17. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.4 33.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.65 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.31 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 15.7% 10.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 8.1% 4.4% 2.8% 1.6% 6.3% 2.9% 2.7% Bayesian: 3.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 4.3% 9.0% 5.4% 3.9% 0.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 53 53 53 51 55 58 64 67 66 67 65 65 67 71 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 50 50 48 52 55 61 64 63 64 62 62 64 68 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 46 44 48 51 57 60 59 60 58 58 60 64 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 38 42 45 51 54 53 54 52 52 54 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT