* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 56 57 55 58 58 59 61 61 60 59 60 60 63 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 56 57 55 58 58 59 61 61 60 59 60 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 56 57 57 56 56 56 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 4 6 12 14 14 11 13 13 13 15 18 19 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 6 5 4 -1 0 2 1 2 3 4 3 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 303 294 260 241 246 243 235 264 235 244 235 243 235 264 260 290 269 SST (C) 25.3 25.6 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 110 113 115 115 116 120 120 123 129 134 134 131 129 134 132 132 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 111 114 114 114 118 118 120 126 129 127 123 120 125 122 121 124 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 61 55 51 50 48 46 46 46 48 52 55 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 13 15 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 30 27 30 26 21 14 8 -1 -9 -20 -12 -10 -6 -24 -23 200 MB DIV 19 26 32 43 42 0 -4 7 20 6 18 10 3 0 -1 -3 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -1 3 9 18 10 5 -3 -5 -5 -6 -11 -6 -6 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1600 1788 1975 2001 1898 1717 1560 1445 1202 902 598 358 221 245 170 223 196 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.4 34.1 35.9 37.6 39.4 42.9 46.6 50.1 53.7 57.2 60.2 62.8 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 18 17 17 17 16 13 12 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 12 19 19 22 15 19 24 21 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 10. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 32.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.69 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.64 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.2% 11.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 8.1% 4.3% 2.4% 1.2% 5.3% 2.3% 2.3% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 8.6% 5.4% 3.8% 0.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 55 56 57 55 58 58 59 61 61 60 59 60 60 63 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 53 54 52 55 55 56 58 58 57 56 57 57 60 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 49 47 50 50 51 53 53 52 51 52 52 55 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 42 40 43 43 44 46 46 45 44 45 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT