* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 61 65 65 68 69 72 72 73 73 74 76 79 80 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 61 65 65 68 69 72 72 73 73 74 76 79 80 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 62 66 66 65 65 66 67 68 68 67 65 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 3 3 8 6 12 13 16 15 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 3 5 10 1 3 2 2 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 121 91 204 158 221 209 204 230 223 215 215 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 113 116 116 119 120 122 127 134 134 133 130 136 132 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 109 112 114 115 117 118 119 124 130 129 126 123 128 124 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 70 64 56 49 46 42 47 45 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 16 15 16 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 34 33 32 38 28 33 20 29 10 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 48 49 63 62 20 23 20 0 34 11 50 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 3 5 10 8 -4 -9 -9 -7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1409 1601 1793 1986 1981 1776 1583 1461 1236 1003 674 394 211 206 150 189 130 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.6 32.4 34.2 36.0 37.8 41.4 45.2 49.0 52.7 56.2 59.4 62.3 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 6 21 18 25 15 23 23 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 16. 20. 20. 23. 24. 27. 27. 28. 28. 29. 31. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 30.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/24/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.79 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.39 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 21.9% 13.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 17.1% 9.0% 3.4% 1.6% 6.4% 3.6% 2.4% Bayesian: 5.7% 6.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.4% 3.0% 2.0% 0.2% Consensus: 5.7% 15.2% 8.2% 4.6% 0.7% 3.2% 1.8% 0.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/24/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 59 61 65 65 68 69 72 72 73 73 74 76 79 80 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 56 60 60 63 64 67 67 68 68 69 71 74 75 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 48 52 52 55 56 59 59 60 60 61 63 66 67 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 41 44 45 48 48 49 49 50 52 55 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT