* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/10/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 32 32 34 36 39 42 46 51 54 53 55 54 53 54 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 32 32 32 33 36 39 44 41 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 31 30 28 28 26 25 25 28 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 29 27 28 32 23 25 9 11 5 7 10 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 271 277 260 264 278 295 325 269 215 316 3 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 29.2 28.9 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.4 27.0 27.6 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 157 152 140 144 143 141 128 123 130 136 132 133 141 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 145 157 147 131 131 127 123 109 104 109 113 110 112 118 123 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 58 58 63 63 66 66 67 57 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 0 4 -10 -21 -46 -62 -33 -12 -12 -44 -26 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 30 65 67 65 62 30 48 23 5 -36 -21 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 17 5 1 -8 -4 3 9 0 1 -2 1 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 234 132 44 26 11 16 166 121 47 17 -2 -46 -135 -235 -307 -336 -435 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.8 19.7 21.7 23.7 25.6 27.2 28.4 29.6 30.6 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.5 70.4 72.3 73.7 75.2 77.1 78.2 79.0 79.7 80.5 81.2 82.0 82.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 20 18 17 15 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 26 38 34 25 35 30 22 5 3 6 2 3 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 28 CX,CY: -26/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 856 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.0 68.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.37 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.80 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 6.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 36 33 32 32 32 33 36 39 44 41 34 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 36 35 35 35 36 39 42 47 44 37 32 30 30 30 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 35 36 39 42 47 44 37 32 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 31 34 37 42 39 32 27 25 25 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT