* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 50 52 54 54 54 55 60 62 68 69 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 50 52 47 41 41 42 48 50 55 56 56 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 51 51 44 35 38 38 40 44 51 59 67 75 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 18 18 16 18 17 18 28 23 18 15 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 5 3 8 10 0 9 0 -2 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 298 313 302 283 271 248 276 279 278 272 303 337 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.3 27.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 145 142 141 140 142 131 134 137 136 137 134 138 132 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 147 145 142 141 136 135 120 120 121 118 118 113 115 110 101 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 12 11 13 13 12 11 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 51 51 53 52 55 56 56 58 58 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 12 10 10 10 9 8 8 11 10 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 20 15 9 12 -1 -2 -35 -54 -85 -53 -48 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 36 29 40 50 62 79 36 54 31 35 47 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 6 10 12 19 24 30 18 16 6 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 628 469 356 405 383 143 -2 11 98 227 312 253 184 163 143 106 87 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 16.8 18.4 20.0 21.6 23.3 24.7 25.9 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 57.2 59.4 61.6 63.8 67.7 70.7 73.2 74.9 76.0 76.9 77.6 78.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 23 23 21 19 15 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 31 37 21 18 22 37 14 18 28 26 26 23 22 16 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -7. -8. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 15. 17. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.0 55.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.40 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.43 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.73 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.7% 9.7% 7.6% 6.7% 9.6% 10.7% 13.5% Logistic: 2.8% 6.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.8% 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 13.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 11.6% 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 4.2% 4.8% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 50 50 52 47 41 41 42 48 50 55 56 56 56 55 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 47 49 44 38 38 39 45 47 52 53 53 53 52 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 43 45 40 34 34 35 41 43 48 49 49 49 48 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 37 32 26 26 27 33 35 40 41 41 41 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT