* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 22 22 21 21 19 17 17 17 16 17 17 19 20 21 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 22 22 21 21 19 17 17 17 16 17 17 19 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 23 23 22 23 15 15 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -2 -5 -3 -2 0 -5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 102 89 90 89 87 93 106 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 125 125 123 122 120 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 54 54 56 61 67 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 34 30 30 34 27 20 -3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 39 44 13 4 24 13 16 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 731 736 741 748 756 772 764 749 744 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.2 113.3 113.5 113.6 113.9 114.1 114.3 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. 23. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 113.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/06/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##