* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 27 27 25 23 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 27 27 25 23 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 27 25 23 21 20 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 18 20 22 20 16 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -1 -1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 115 128 123 126 113 114 104 76 69 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.7 27.1 26.9 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 136 136 136 133 129 133 131 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 42 42 42 44 45 46 48 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 51 48 55 54 51 43 44 31 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -8 16 10 26 23 -8 3 -6 -5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 576 627 637 641 650 674 710 767 829 891 968 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.7 111.3 111.9 112.4 113.5 114.5 115.5 116.6 117.9 119.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 1 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12. -17. -19. -20. -24. -24. -23. -20. -17. -15. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 110.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/04/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 1.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.41 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.9% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/04/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##