* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 58 58 56 57 54 56 51 49 46 43 44 47 50 52 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 58 58 56 57 54 56 51 49 46 43 44 47 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 57 57 56 56 55 54 51 47 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 10 13 17 13 16 12 15 12 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -5 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 107 107 122 144 121 135 109 114 113 124 117 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.7 27.1 26.4 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 133 136 139 141 141 140 135 129 134 126 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 55 54 54 51 51 49 52 53 54 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 11 13 12 13 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 59 65 55 61 61 53 45 46 38 30 24 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 40 30 0 -2 10 6 20 5 -20 -21 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 382 430 479 532 585 675 691 721 762 805 867 947 1038 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.6 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.5 108.9 109.4 109.9 111.0 112.1 113.3 114.5 115.7 117.1 118.6 120.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 5 7 8 8 7 5 1 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 2. 1. 3. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. -4. -3. -6. -4. -9. -11. -14. -17. -16. -13. -10. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.5 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.57 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.47 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 20.2% 18.3% 15.2% 11.6% 16.9% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 7.1% 6.5% 5.2% 4.2% 5.8% 4.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##