* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 66 66 65 64 60 58 54 52 47 45 45 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 66 66 65 64 60 58 54 52 47 45 45 45 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 65 65 64 62 61 59 57 53 48 44 41 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 12 15 5 7 17 13 13 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -2 1 -5 0 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 106 112 115 117 146 112 125 126 106 115 114 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.9 26.1 25.2 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 134 131 130 131 135 136 133 129 125 121 123 114 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 59 58 57 53 53 54 52 54 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 9 10 10 10 11 9 10 8 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 37 45 56 50 52 60 53 55 48 43 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 18 -6 -10 12 1 22 -1 10 10 10 -8 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 3 3 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 290 318 357 397 479 564 609 621 642 677 752 831 924 1032 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.2 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.5 107.7 108.1 108.4 109.2 110.1 111.0 111.9 112.9 114.0 115.3 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 2 3 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -7. -11. -13. -18. -20. -20. -20. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.3 107.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.36 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.59 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.51 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 23.2% 19.6% 16.1% 12.3% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 8.3% 6.9% 5.5% 4.7% 6.4% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##