* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 57 58 58 57 60 61 61 61 57 56 56 56 57 57 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 57 58 58 57 60 61 61 61 57 56 56 56 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 59 60 59 57 57 56 54 52 49 47 44 41 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 15 17 10 10 7 5 7 3 3 7 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 0 -1 0 -4 -4 -1 1 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 136 109 117 121 141 122 153 90 111 68 115 154 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 24.9 24.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 140 137 134 129 121 117 118 120 118 119 118 116 111 101 102 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 62 61 64 61 56 61 55 55 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 7 9 8 9 9 8 11 11 12 12 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 16 20 17 38 42 58 47 44 34 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 18 36 -21 -54 24 -18 25 10 -4 -35 -10 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -3 -3 2 6 3 2 0 -1 -5 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 206 199 208 226 245 293 355 407 433 448 495 565 668 771 865 975 1096 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.0 106.5 106.9 107.3 108.0 108.7 109.3 110.1 111.1 112.3 113.5 114.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.5 105.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.52 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 24.4% 20.3% 16.8% 11.8% 21.4% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 8.0% 4.6% 1.8% 3.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 11.9% 8.3% 6.2% 5.1% 7.7% 5.6% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##