* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 06/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 52 59 62 63 63 62 65 63 61 61 61 62 64 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 52 59 62 63 63 62 65 63 61 61 61 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 49 53 55 57 57 57 56 54 51 48 46 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 10 9 9 9 3 7 5 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -7 -5 -1 -2 1 1 -3 -1 3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 218 163 155 134 104 86 96 82 128 212 301 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.4 25.3 25.7 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 147 148 148 148 144 136 131 126 115 114 119 119 116 111 109 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 68 66 65 63 60 60 64 66 65 67 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 14 18 25 16 23 33 46 57 79 59 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 32 46 57 67 34 23 -3 18 25 52 -4 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -6 -2 -1 2 2 1 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 400 346 272 222 184 153 133 148 192 260 356 367 402 487 609 715 838 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.1 103.3 103.6 103.9 104.7 105.6 106.4 107.2 108.0 109.0 110.2 111.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 43 29 23 22 21 19 16 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 24. 27. 28. 28. 27. 30. 28. 26. 26. 26. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 102.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 06/30/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 10.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.78 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -9.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 42.9% 32.1% 22.6% 14.8% 27.2% 27.4% 17.3% Logistic: 32.2% 53.3% 50.0% 31.8% 35.7% 44.6% 32.6% 25.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 50.2% 27.3% 12.3% 14.3% 21.9% 14.2% 1.0% Consensus: 16.9% 48.8% 36.5% 22.2% 21.6% 31.2% 24.8% 14.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 06/30/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##