* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022013 06/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 25 28 33 38 37 39 37 39 40 40 41 42 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 29 26 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 17 17 16 11 5 12 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 248 252 243 246 253 269 299 295 264 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.9 29.6 28.9 28.3 28.4 28.4 27.2 26.3 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 167 161 149 139 140 140 124 115 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 158 151 138 127 127 126 112 104 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 70 71 72 72 73 75 74 70 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 7 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -2 -1 -6 3 7 26 26 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 14 11 20 32 32 60 51 45 28 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 4 6 -3 0 -3 -1 -10 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -67 -152 -143 -106 -78 -9 23 -5 -57 -168 -216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.8 90.7 91.4 92.2 93.4 94.5 95.4 96.4 97.5 98.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 11 5 6 20 11 11 11 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -6. -8. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 8. 13. 12. 14. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 89.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 TWO 06/18/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.93 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.85 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 11.4% 7.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 12.4% 5.9% 2.9% 1.7% 5.1% 8.8% 24.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Consensus: 1.6% 8.0% 4.5% 2.8% 0.6% 1.7% 5.6% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022013 TWO 06/18/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 TWO 06/18/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 27 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 25 32 29 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 29 26 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 23 20 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT