* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 42 40 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 30 29 30 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 35 32 30 29 31 29 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 31 26 29 30 34 45 65 73 66 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 2 4 2 5 -2 -3 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 215 215 214 216 236 253 270 273 269 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 25.3 25.3 22.7 21.1 14.3 10.6 8.3 11.1 15.5 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 111 112 95 89 74 71 70 72 77 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 102 103 89 83 71 70 69 71 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.1 -51.2 -49.7 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 4 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 70 69 70 66 68 67 67 57 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 19 22 20 20 19 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 58 78 98 115 95 6 3 43 105 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 83 85 108 104 75 46 4 -21 -1 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 15 8 17 3 14 22 29 -110 -47 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -41 -24 -35 -90 -4 66 97 181 618 1381 1285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 31.5 33.2 35.2 37.1 41.0 43.7 45.2 45.7 45.5 45.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.0 81.6 80.1 78.1 76.0 70.4 63.2 54.6 45.2 35.0 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 24 26 28 29 31 32 34 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -12. -24. -35. -46. -53. -61. -72. -79. -82. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -13. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 2. -0. -5. -15. -33. -48. -61. -68. -76. -86. -92. -95. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.8 83.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.58 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.29 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.63 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.75 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 8.6% 5.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 32 30 29 30 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 30 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT