* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 49 46 43 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 43 36 30 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 44 36 30 31 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 29 31 30 31 35 42 54 74 90 62 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 4 0 5 3 6 -6 -10 12 20 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 224 216 218 217 215 236 241 259 270 276 242 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.7 25.6 27.1 25.1 23.3 16.2 10.8 11.6 10.7 15.3 14.9 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 122 112 128 110 99 77 71 72 72 77 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 109 101 117 102 93 74 70 71 71 75 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -52.3 -49.7 -48.1 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 67 67 66 64 69 66 52 49 47 37 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 16 15 14 14 15 13 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 28 63 68 63 98 85 31 -19 12 67 224 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 80 121 133 66 110 63 48 3 -28 0 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 15 27 25 10 40 39 33 -39 -119 -98 -59 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 207 95 -50 -80 -83 162 125 288 525 1258 1240 499 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.9 28.9 30.3 31.7 35.6 39.4 42.5 44.3 44.8 45.6 47.1 48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.2 85.5 84.7 83.4 82.1 78.0 72.1 64.8 56.3 46.9 36.6 25.7 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 18 22 28 31 32 33 35 38 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -14. -24. -38. -50. -54. -57. -66. -72. -75. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -11. -15. -18. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -8. -22. -42. -57. -64. -70. -78. -82. -84. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.8 86.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 43 36 30 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 40 33 27 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 35 28 22 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 28 22 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT