* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022013 05/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 72 74 76 75 73 73 74 75 76 76 74 73 75 76 V (KT) LAND 55 62 51 41 35 36 35 33 33 34 35 36 36 34 33 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 54 43 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 7 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 1 2 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 4 107 55 82 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.5 27.6 27.0 26.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 148 138 132 128 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 71 73 71 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 10 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 81 103 101 83 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 111 121 93 60 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 8 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 96 28 -40 -108 -67 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 94.6 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 12 6 3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 19. 21. 20. 18. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 19. 18. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.2 94.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022013 BARBARA 05/29/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 12.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.74 10.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.43 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -12.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 11.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 8.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.7% 62.1% 49.4% 40.6% 20.4% 36.0% 23.6% 12.6% Logistic: 42.9% 55.1% 58.6% 48.6% 17.6% 38.1% 13.1% 10.6% Bayesian: 30.1% 28.7% 37.3% 27.6% 2.4% 9.4% 3.4% 0.1% Consensus: 37.6% 48.6% 48.4% 38.9% 13.5% 27.8% 13.3% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022013 BARBARA 05/29/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##