* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192021 11/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 27 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 19 23 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 3 6 13 8 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 220 219 221 230 233 213 207 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 142 139 137 135 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 60 63 65 64 61 59 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -31 -25 -24 -32 -44 -41 -23 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 57 54 55 37 26 -21 -8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1087 1076 1071 1070 1075 1087 1198 1375 1544 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.6 15.7 15.5 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.9 114.6 115.2 115.9 116.9 118.5 121.0 123.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 8 9 9 11 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -21. -20. -19. -17. -15. -13. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 113.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192021 NINETEEN 11/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192021 NINETEEN 11/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##