* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 54 53 51 52 56 58 56 49 47 46 43 42 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 54 53 51 52 56 58 56 49 47 46 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 49 50 50 50 53 57 63 65 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 11 11 16 23 17 13 5 9 37 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -1 -4 7 -1 -2 -2 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 281 264 246 234 206 201 217 243 233 260 184 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 22.4 21.1 20.8 20.9 20.8 20.6 21.4 22.3 22.4 22.0 19.3 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 88 82 81 80 78 79 83 86 87 88 81 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 76 72 71 70 67 70 73 74 75 79 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -55.7 -56.4 -58.1 -58.0 -58.5 -60.3 -60.3 -60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.8 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 56 54 50 47 37 35 40 52 46 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 21 19 17 16 16 15 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 160 147 124 111 88 44 23 -25 5 25 39 17 -85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 25 11 14 30 56 57 1 -21 13 57 61 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 3 0 -1 -12 -1 -6 0 -2 -18 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1473 1414 1359 1308 1259 1241 1342 1498 1622 1696 1732 1810 1471 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 38.4 39.2 40.0 40.7 41.2 40.7 39.3 37.6 37.4 38.8 41.5 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.1 40.0 39.9 39.8 39.8 39.6 38.6 37.7 37.7 36.8 34.8 31.6 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 5 2 6 8 5 6 15 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 23. 26. 26. 25. 22. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 8. 6. 7. 11. 13. 11. 4. 2. 1. -2. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.6 40.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.0 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/03/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 50 54 53 51 52 56 58 56 49 47 46 43 42 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 52 51 49 50 54 56 54 47 45 44 41 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 48 47 45 46 50 52 50 43 41 40 37 36 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 39 37 38 42 44 42 35 33 32 29 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT