* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 105 105 105 102 100 98 101 102 102 105 101 97 84 79 62 V (KT) LAND 105 105 105 105 105 102 100 98 101 102 102 105 101 97 84 79 62 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 101 99 98 97 98 99 99 98 95 87 77 65 51 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 2 2 7 8 12 10 12 20 25 33 27 18 16 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 4 4 2 -2 0 2 2 0 0 7 18 19 0 15 SHEAR DIR 202 231 232 250 238 236 235 233 198 211 197 189 203 214 217 203 283 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.0 26.5 26.4 24.2 14.9 11.8 9.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 137 138 139 144 144 146 144 139 122 122 103 71 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 128 127 128 129 134 133 134 131 127 110 109 92 68 64 63 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.8 -54.3 -52.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.2 2.8 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 46 48 49 52 54 60 60 49 42 31 33 46 53 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 22 22 23 25 27 30 32 33 36 36 36 29 29 19 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -25 -22 -22 -15 -12 4 1 24 33 49 76 130 239 241 195 157 200 MB DIV 14 8 5 19 16 4 39 51 74 64 97 73 60 52 54 45 69 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 1 3 4 17 0 6 -7 42 -5 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 1080 1056 1037 1035 1039 983 828 743 767 958 1263 1274 990 639 220 66 307 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.1 20.3 21.9 23.7 26.2 29.2 32.7 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.9 53.5 54.0 54.6 55.1 56.4 58.1 59.7 61.1 61.8 61.8 60.6 58.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 17 19 22 22 18 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 36 32 33 40 57 73 46 58 24 15 1 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -23. -28. -32. -36. -40. -46. -52. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 16. 14. 12. 2. 1. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -4. -3. -3. -0. -4. -8. -21. -26. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.5 52.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 799.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 4.8% 4.6% 2.8% 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 1.4% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/28/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/28/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 27( 61) 24( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 9( 22) 24( 41) 15( 49) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 105 105 105 102 100 98 101 102 102 105 101 97 84 79 62 18HR AGO 105 104 104 104 104 101 99 97 100 101 101 104 100 96 83 78 61 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 101 98 96 94 97 98 98 101 97 93 80 75 58 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 95 92 90 88 91 92 92 95 91 87 74 69 52 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 83 81 79 82 83 83 86 82 78 65 60 43 IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 85 83 81 84 85 85 88 84 80 67 62 45 IN 12HR 105 105 105 96 90 86 84 82 85 86 86 89 85 81 68 63 46