* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 34 37 40 43 44 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 34 37 40 43 44 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 34 31 29 28 29 31 35 38 41 42 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 30 29 27 30 32 31 20 10 13 12 20 32 30 30 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 3 2 -2 2 2 0 -4 -4 -6 -2 -3 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 226 240 250 252 250 261 263 304 283 292 226 249 248 251 241 239 222 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.6 26.6 27.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 148 148 150 146 148 150 151 152 144 138 132 121 126 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 136 134 135 129 130 131 131 130 123 117 114 104 107 99 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -56.3 -56.7 -57.1 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 52 54 58 59 57 61 60 58 56 58 57 49 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -12 -17 -13 -10 -11 0 26 31 28 14 2 10 26 42 38 200 MB DIV 11 -7 0 6 -2 21 23 15 5 4 2 -1 7 31 31 32 43 700-850 TADV -3 -13 -8 0 -4 0 0 3 2 3 -1 1 0 1 8 11 11 LAND (KM) 413 341 300 295 322 384 436 531 680 846 1003 1158 1104 1076 913 740 624 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.4 22.2 23.2 24.1 25.4 26.8 28.1 29.4 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.1 64.2 65.0 65.9 67.2 68.0 67.9 67.5 66.9 66.3 65.7 65.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 8 7 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 45 57 75 86 59 45 43 38 40 37 30 14 4 18 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -13. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -11. -8. -5. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.8 62.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/21/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 34 37 40 43 44 44 44 45 45 18HR AGO 45 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 34 37 40 43 44 44 44 45 45 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 35 33 31 33 36 39 42 43 43 43 44 44 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 31 29 27 29 32 35 38 39 39 39 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT