* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/03/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 91 96 99 105 104 104 103 102 106 109 104 98 96 91 85 V (KT) LAND 85 88 91 96 99 105 104 104 103 102 106 109 104 98 96 91 85 V (KT) LGEM 85 88 90 92 95 100 100 99 99 104 107 110 108 103 98 92 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 1 2 1 3 6 10 11 3 9 7 17 13 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 2 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 0 -6 -4 -3 7 SHEAR DIR 116 126 124 175 336 257 307 298 301 299 262 257 186 255 230 217 211 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.6 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 125 127 129 132 134 146 155 157 159 156 148 144 136 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 120 120 122 122 124 124 134 141 142 144 140 130 126 118 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.0 -50.2 -49.4 -49.9 -49.3 -50.3 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.3 1.7 2.0 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 7 2 700-500 MB RH 68 63 61 58 58 53 50 50 47 48 50 52 58 59 60 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 32 34 35 38 37 39 39 39 42 44 42 41 42 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 81 82 75 70 68 59 36 28 10 4 8 14 32 2 13 31 31 200 MB DIV 95 122 92 61 46 13 15 -1 19 5 75 48 83 48 41 66 82 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 0 0 2 0 9 3 12 14 3 33 LAND (KM) 1606 1565 1524 1493 1475 1500 1459 1377 1242 1138 1105 1133 1271 1351 1063 748 468 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 18.2 19.6 20.7 22.1 23.4 24.9 26.6 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.8 44.1 45.3 46.5 48.8 50.9 52.8 54.5 56.2 57.7 59.3 60.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 10 11 12 13 13 15 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 5 12 11 13 23 27 28 46 31 44 35 38 24 24 27 27 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. 7. 9. 5. 2. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 20. 19. 19. 18. 17. 21. 24. 19. 13. 11. 6. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.8 41.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/03/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.87 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 28.2% 20.4% 12.6% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.5% 30.0% 17.9% 10.7% 7.5% 10.5% 7.7% 3.0% Bayesian: 16.1% 25.5% 11.4% 2.5% 1.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 14.0% 27.9% 16.6% 8.6% 6.5% 4.3% 2.7% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/03/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/03/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 21( 37) 27( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 12( 13) 27( 36) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 91 96 99 105 104 104 103 102 106 109 104 98 96 91 85 18HR AGO 85 84 87 92 95 101 100 100 99 98 102 105 100 94 92 87 81 12HR AGO 85 82 81 86 89 95 94 94 93 92 96 99 94 88 86 81 75 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 78 84 83 83 82 81 85 88 83 77 75 70 64 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 72 71 71 70 69 73 76 71 65 63 58 52 IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 72 71 71 70 69 73 76 71 65 63 58 52 IN 12HR 85 88 91 82 76 72 71 71 70 69 73 76 71 65 63 58 52