* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 87 90 95 101 102 102 103 105 106 106 104 102 97 92 87 V (KT) LAND 80 83 87 90 95 101 102 102 103 105 106 106 104 102 97 92 87 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 85 88 91 97 100 101 102 105 106 107 109 104 97 92 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 7 6 2 2 6 6 10 8 12 10 16 13 14 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -1 2 0 1 -2 0 -6 -4 -4 -4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 163 109 126 107 61 24 328 302 284 283 280 284 257 245 249 222 220 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.3 27.7 28.1 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.6 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 124 125 130 128 133 139 155 153 159 160 151 147 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 122 120 121 124 120 124 128 140 138 144 144 133 127 117 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -49.8 -49.2 -49.6 -49.6 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 11 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 68 68 64 61 60 55 52 49 47 49 52 55 60 61 61 60 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 36 34 37 38 37 38 40 41 43 44 43 44 43 43 42 850 MB ENV VOR 81 88 88 80 80 75 55 43 34 25 14 14 42 30 34 61 120 200 MB DIV 59 109 96 94 62 42 26 21 0 41 34 69 68 71 33 38 52 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 -4 -2 7 2 14 8 19 17 27 15 LAND (KM) 1702 1635 1580 1538 1506 1504 1507 1444 1289 1182 1137 1146 1210 1385 1207 938 667 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.8 19.1 20.3 21.7 23.0 24.3 26.0 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.4 42.9 44.1 45.4 47.8 49.9 51.8 53.9 55.5 56.8 58.3 60.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 9 10 12 13 12 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 12 10 13 35 24 31 32 42 40 41 37 23 26 13 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 21. 22. 22. 23. 25. 26. 26. 24. 22. 17. 13. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.6 40.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.85 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 31.5% 22.3% 14.2% 11.1% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.6% 32.0% 19.0% 11.1% 8.1% 13.8% 10.2% 4.0% Bayesian: 13.1% 25.7% 11.9% 2.8% 1.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% Consensus: 13.7% 29.7% 17.7% 9.4% 6.8% 11.5% 3.7% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/03/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 17( 31) 23( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 87 90 95 101 102 102 103 105 106 106 104 102 97 92 87 18HR AGO 80 79 83 86 91 97 98 98 99 101 102 102 100 98 93 88 83 12HR AGO 80 77 76 79 84 90 91 91 92 94 95 95 93 91 86 81 76 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 75 81 82 82 83 85 86 86 84 82 77 72 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 67 68 68 69 71 72 72 70 68 63 58 53 IN 12HR 80 83 87 78 72 68 69 69 70 72 73 73 71 69 64 59 54