* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 60 66 80 92 100 105 105 102 103 105 104 104 104 106 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 60 66 80 92 100 105 105 102 103 105 104 104 104 106 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 58 64 78 91 98 98 93 89 90 90 89 88 88 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 6 5 6 8 8 15 10 13 15 20 16 22 13 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 4 1 0 -1 1 2 3 -2 -2 3 0 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 52 76 125 159 75 45 46 73 67 34 359 1 323 297 279 237 190 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.8 27.4 27.4 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 138 138 132 130 129 124 122 129 129 134 140 144 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 136 138 138 131 128 127 121 116 121 120 122 126 129 137 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -53.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 74 77 74 74 73 68 67 60 51 46 49 52 55 56 60 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 23 24 25 30 33 34 34 33 31 32 34 36 38 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR 102 111 108 107 105 107 121 136 152 140 113 83 59 39 27 36 52 200 MB DIV 68 40 46 90 90 98 86 95 54 49 -4 6 27 27 41 60 10 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -10 -11 -10 -13 -10 -5 -1 -6 -6 -2 0 10 8 14 11 LAND (KM) 749 937 1131 1275 1420 1743 1911 1828 1691 1662 1708 1770 1743 1718 1714 1651 1558 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.8 15.8 17.1 18.6 20.0 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.9 25.8 27.7 29.1 30.5 33.6 36.3 38.6 41.5 43.6 45.2 46.8 48.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 16 14 15 14 13 14 13 11 10 10 9 8 9 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 11 10 9 9 16 19 13 8 29 22 23 23 23 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 9. 14. 17. 18. 16. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 26. 40. 52. 60. 65. 65. 62. 63. 65. 64. 64. 64. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.2 23.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 32.9% 19.4% 9.5% 8.9% 15.3% 23.2% 32.0% Logistic: 13.9% 42.9% 26.2% 9.0% 5.4% 14.6% 10.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 9.3% 35.1% 11.4% 1.2% 1.1% 13.5% 38.5% 13.7% Consensus: 10.2% 37.0% 19.0% 6.5% 5.1% 14.5% 24.0% 16.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/01/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 7( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 53 60 66 80 92 100 105 105 102 103 105 104 104 104 106 18HR AGO 40 39 46 53 59 73 85 93 98 98 95 96 98 97 97 97 99 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 49 63 75 83 88 88 85 86 88 87 87 87 89 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 50 62 70 75 75 72 73 75 74 74 74 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT