* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP132021 08/23/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 38 36 33 29 23 19 20 22 24 27 28 30 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 38 36 33 29 23 19 20 22 24 27 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 37 34 30 26 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 10 15 14 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 1 2 3 0 5 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 30 34 76 88 90 84 89 151 174 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.2 26.8 26.6 25.9 25.9 25.3 25.3 25.0 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 137 133 130 123 122 116 116 113 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 68 67 63 61 62 59 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 14 12 10 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 59 42 38 44 56 52 57 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -12 4 12 19 -10 -2 15 -15 -48 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -9 0 3 3 11 1 6 4 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 353 433 533 604 800 978 1123 1261 1435 1629 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.5 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.8 113.3 114.6 115.9 118.3 120.2 121.8 123.8 125.8 127.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 10 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 17 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -15. -13. -11. -8. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 110.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 17.1% 13.3% 9.7% 6.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.7% 5.1% 3.3% 2.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##