* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102021 08/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 27 26 23 22 21 21 21 21 20 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 27 26 23 22 21 21 21 21 20 20 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 27 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 13 11 10 13 18 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 7 4 3 7 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 24 20 27 37 43 56 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.4 27.4 27.5 26.0 25.0 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 145 139 139 140 124 113 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 74 70 68 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 10 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 21 28 31 12 0 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 20 61 74 59 1 24 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -7 -6 -10 -14 -22 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 661 634 634 668 709 785 897 993 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.2 21.1 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.5 113.6 114.7 115.8 118.1 120.1 122.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 7 4 4 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102021 TEN 08/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.18 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 10.7% 9.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102021 TEN 08/01/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##