* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 63 64 69 68 70 70 71 72 72 68 62 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 55 58 48 43 49 54 53 39 35 31 34 35 30 25 22 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 49 44 50 53 55 40 42 33 39 44 46 44 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 14 14 19 12 15 11 11 12 13 21 32 39 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 4 1 0 1 -2 -1 -4 0 0 3 0 5 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 292 276 274 267 267 264 277 272 256 262 239 257 233 234 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.4 30.7 30.0 29.1 28.9 29.1 27.8 27.7 26.8 25.7 23.9 18.5 12.9 9.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 172 171 169 153 150 154 135 134 125 115 102 79 71 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 169 171 153 138 134 136 119 118 110 102 91 74 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 4 6 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 60 58 57 63 60 68 71 76 77 72 67 53 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 13 11 11 10 11 13 15 15 13 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -61 -44 -61 -53 -44 -78 -48 -47 -14 30 64 63 48 72 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 24 50 37 19 50 8 41 31 75 53 64 63 70 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 5 10 17 11 20 15 32 20 42 18 43 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 97 33 -31 0 88 126 15 -72 -1 -22 191 273 198 204 51 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.2 23.9 25.8 27.9 30.0 32.4 34.6 36.8 39.3 42.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.6 80.5 81.3 81.8 82.4 83.0 83.0 82.1 80.5 77.7 73.8 69.2 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 10 11 12 15 18 21 23 24 23 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 86 71 69 75 36 19 30 4 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 1. -3. -3. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -5. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 14. 13. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. 13. 8. 5. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.7 79.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.2% 36.4% 22.6% 15.4% 11.2% 19.5% 14.9% 16.7% Logistic: 10.7% 21.1% 14.0% 9.7% 4.8% 10.6% 7.4% 4.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 8.6% 2.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 10.4% 22.0% 13.2% 8.5% 5.4% 10.3% 7.6% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/05/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/05/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 48 43 49 54 53 39 35 31 34 35 30 25 22 23 22 18HR AGO 55 54 44 39 45 50 49 35 31 27 30 31 26 21 18 19 18 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 52 57 56 42 38 34 37 38 33 28 25 26 25 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 56 55 41 37 33 36 37 32 27 24 25 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT