* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/05/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 63 65 68 74 71 71 70 70 69 66 65 58 58 56 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 47 50 53 58 49 35 30 28 30 27 26 19 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 48 49 53 55 57 35 30 28 34 37 39 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 13 12 15 10 14 13 16 15 20 29 33 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 3 0 0 4 -1 1 -3 5 -1 -4 2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 291 289 271 277 288 270 272 263 263 271 254 236 215 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.7 30.5 29.6 29.0 28.5 28.8 27.4 28.1 26.9 23.5 17.9 15.2 11.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 171 172 171 162 151 144 150 130 140 126 99 78 73 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 163 172 167 147 135 128 133 114 123 112 90 74 69 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 3 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 60 59 61 65 67 72 75 79 72 64 59 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 12 15 11 11 11 12 13 13 15 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -54 -64 -48 -60 -64 -58 -76 -46 -55 2 75 74 41 54 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 24 29 59 30 49 25 24 72 44 80 41 67 75 63 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 2 3 17 20 8 16 23 41 32 5 6 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 86 63 11 -23 28 178 105 -2 -72 -83 -53 237 237 151 157 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.4 25.0 26.7 29.2 31.7 33.9 35.9 38.4 41.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.7 80.7 81.4 82.2 83.1 83.4 83.0 82.0 79.8 76.5 72.0 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 9 10 13 13 16 19 24 25 22 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 72 78 67 71 65 19 15 26 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -2. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 19. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. 11. 10. 3. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.2 78.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/05/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 33.4% 19.6% 13.3% 10.3% 17.7% 13.8% 16.5% Logistic: 7.0% 16.1% 11.3% 8.5% 3.2% 5.3% 3.7% 2.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 3.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 17.8% 10.8% 7.3% 4.6% 7.8% 5.9% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/05/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/05/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 47 50 53 58 49 35 30 28 30 27 26 19 19 17 18HR AGO 55 54 57 43 46 49 54 45 31 26 24 26 23 22 15 15 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 37 40 43 48 39 25 20 18 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 51 56 47 33 28 26 28 25 24 17 17 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT