* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 61 59 58 59 59 64 65 72 71 73 72 76 76 74 66 V (KT) LAND 65 62 54 59 58 53 39 47 49 55 46 34 29 32 33 31 22 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 58 57 53 40 45 49 52 47 34 29 32 39 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 13 18 17 12 20 14 17 15 20 11 16 24 42 68 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 -3 -3 1 -1 -1 -1 3 -3 2 -4 5 4 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 315 311 299 306 306 294 288 274 289 280 288 282 239 241 246 237 237 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.6 28.8 29.5 30.3 30.3 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.6 27.6 27.0 23.3 23.8 19.2 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 148 150 162 172 171 158 153 148 146 134 127 96 100 82 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 147 146 156 168 161 141 135 131 130 120 112 86 90 77 70 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 6 3 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 63 67 67 66 65 63 63 61 64 66 72 73 68 55 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 13 11 10 10 10 12 12 14 12 12 10 13 18 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 38 25 21 2 -8 -18 -52 -43 -56 -31 -57 -45 10 66 87 99 85 200 MB DIV 17 11 35 23 34 16 36 38 48 73 50 86 63 76 26 0 25 700-850 TADV 4 22 20 8 0 -4 0 0 14 13 18 22 11 46 66 -13 -37 LAND (KM) 161 69 -24 89 20 24 -22 89 103 40 -28 -29 -133 50 234 201 45 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.7 21.3 22.8 24.0 25.4 27.1 29.4 32.1 35.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.3 72.1 73.9 75.3 76.6 78.8 80.5 81.8 82.5 82.9 82.8 81.4 78.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 19 17 15 14 12 9 8 8 10 13 17 18 18 21 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 24 28 38 57 53 47 24 25 21 7 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 27 CX,CY: -23/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -0. -3. -10. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -12. -10. -14. -14. -17. -13. -8. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -1. 0. 7. 6. 8. 7. 11. 11. 9. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.6 70.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 341.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 11.8% 8.0% 6.8% 6.6% 9.5% 9.2% 13.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 2.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.0% 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 3.5% 3.8% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/03/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 54 59 58 53 39 47 49 55 46 34 29 32 33 31 22 18HR AGO 65 64 56 61 60 55 41 49 51 57 48 36 31 34 35 33 24 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 65 60 46 54 56 62 53 41 36 39 40 38 29 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 49 35 43 45 51 42 30 25 28 29 27 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT